Prices displayed below are related to current Global Futures prices across numerous contract months. Please note that these prices are not a direct reflection on local UK prices. The charts provide a useful tool for gauging market movements and general market trends for their relevant commodity over the past 12 months.
01 Jul 19:18
01 Jul 20:53
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01 Jul 19:44
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01 Jul 19:20
Please note that these prices are delayed by around 15 minutes.
Coceral raised their estimate for the size of this year's EU-28 soft wheat crop from 145.2 MMT To 148.01 MMT, down 1.35% from last year's 150.33 MMT. They also upped the ante on barley from the 59.07 MMT predicted in March to 63.27 MMT, some 3.5% more than a year ago.
For corn they see production rising 6.56% this year to 62.36 MMT, ad OSR output up a little from 21.74 MMT To 22.00 MMT.
So, increased barley production outweighs the decline in wheat output, and if the scenario of a deluge of feed only grade barley comes to pass that the HGCA were talking about yesterday then it's not too difficult to see why there's a GBP16/tonne differential between new crop feed wheat and barley.
If that comes true, then it paints a picture of lacklustre demand for feed wheat from the compound and livestock sector come harvest-time as they all switch into much cheaper barley.
In the UK Coceral see wheat production at 15.18 MMT, down 6.1% on a combination of lower plantings (1.827 million ha) and reduced yields (8.31 MT/ha). Barley production here is forecast at 7.15 MMT (7.28 MMT in 2015) and OSR output at 2.15 MMT (2.55 MMT).
On the continent they have French soft wheat at 38.87 MMT (down 3.6%) and the German crop at 26.11 (26.45 MMT last year). A sharp 23.5% increase is seen coming from the UK's largest export home of Spain (6.42 MMT versus 5.20 MMT).
Spain's barley crop meanwhile will leap 40.6% to 9.04 MMT this year they suggest.
No great changes are forecast coming on OSR output from Europe's top two producers, France (5.21 MMT vs. 5.27 MMT) and Germany (5.35 MMT vs. 5.02 MMT).
Corn production will be higher in both though, with France up 4.1% to 13.67 MMT and Germany seen 17% higher at 4.46 MMT.
In other news the Russian Ag Min forecast a 2016 grain crop of 106-110 MMT (104.8 MMT last year), including "more than 60 MMT" of wheat (61.79 MMT last year).
Tunisia were reported to have bought 100,000 MT of soft wheat at $177.25-178.77/tonne C&F, along with 75,000 MT of feed barley at $161.55-165.82/tonne C&F. Morocco are in for 133,000 MT of optional origin soft milling wheat.
Corn: The market closed sharply lower again after the USDA estimated 2016 US corn seedings at 94.10 million acres, well above the average trade guess of 92.986 million and up on the 93.6 million estimated in March. This would be the third highest planted acreage in the US since 1944. June 1 stocks came in at 4.72 billion bu, up 6 percent from the year previous and above the trade expectation of 4.528 billion. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.004 MMT - a bit lower than trade forecasts. Coceral estimated the EU-28 corn crop at 62.36 MMT, which that's up 6.6% on last year it is still down slightly on the 63.17 MMT estimated in March. The French crop was pegged at 13.67 MMT, up slightly on 13.13 MMT a year ago. Romania will produced 1 MMT more than in 2016 at 10.2 MMT, they estimate. South Korea's Kocopia tendered for optional origin corn. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.58 3/4, down 14 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.65 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished mostly a touch higher. The USDA estimated all wheat acres at 50.80 million versus an average trade guess of just under 50 million and a March guess of 49.6 million. That's still down 7 percent from last year though. June 1 stocks totalled at 981 million bu, close to the trade expectations. Weekly export sales were a better than expected 645,300 MT. Coceral forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 148 MMT versus 145.2 MMT previously and 150.3 MMT a year ago. They have barley output at 63.3 MMT versus 59.1 MMT previously and 61.1 MMT in 2015. ABARES said that good rains forecast for Australia between now and October could boost wheat production there past the currently forecast 25.4 MMT. Russia's Ag Min said that they might harvest as much as 110 MMT of grains this year (104.8 MMT in 2015), with wheat accounting for more than 60 MMT of that total. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.31 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.04 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents.